Iowa Results: Trump for real, establishment in trouble

Two big stories out of tonight’s results. Trump is for real and the establishment is in deep do-do as Rand Paul outperforms Jeb Bush. Here are the results so far with 99% reporting:

Cruz (43,550) 28%
Trump (38,358) 24%
Rubio (36,065) 23%
Carson (14,609) 9%
Paul (7,103) 4%
Bush (4,409) 3%
Kasich (2,970) 2%

Find updates on votes here: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia

Why do I say, “Trump is for real?” Because there was very real skepticism that his supporters would actually bother to go vote. In Iowa this is much more complicated. It’s more of a neighborhood meeting with speeches given by local supporters…

And, by the way, Hillary is in trouble too:

The only hope I see here for the establishment is for Rubio to hold on through a long drawn-out primary season. There’s just nothing like having a presidential election choice between Hillary’s foreign policy + progressive platitudes and…Hillary’s foreign policy + shallow conservative platitudes, you know, Rubio…

The nonintervention faction of the Republican party (those opposed to unconstitutional and/or stupid wars) should take heart that the top two candidates tonight are both on record as clearly opposing the Iraq War, albeit after the invasion. Trump and Cruz also share a strong skepticism of the establishment’s arming of so-called “moderate rebels” in Syria.

While I support Rand Paul, it’s encouraging to remember Ted Cruz has also been rightly accusing Rubio of having the same foreign policy as Hillary Clinton:

Now, he didn’t do it repeatedly and as awesomely as Rand Paul did:

Somehow, I think a certain older Dr. Paul’s ideas might still be gaining momentum?

It’s going to be a long, long primary season and it may all come down to the convention. Hold on…

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  1. Aaron Jones February 2, 2016

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