Could Ron Paul win the GOP Nomination? REDSTATE

Redstate is no friend of, constitutionalist, Ron Paul. But when Redstate takes note that he has ‘a small chance’, it’s time to get off your @$$!

I have long said, and continue to believe that Ron Paul has little-to-no chance to win the GOP nomination. In 2008, I viewed his chances as far closer to “no chance” than to “little chance.” For the 2012 election, his chances are closer to “little” than they were 4 years ago…There are, however, several factors in Paul’s favor this year that were not 4 years ago. As a result, Paul does actually have a small chance to win, and his potential path to victory deserves some analysis. First, here are the things working in Paul’s favor:

1. Paul needs to win Iowa. If he loses Iowa, he will continue to get 10 – 15% support in the remaining states and lose. A win in Iowa is a game-changer for Paul. Iowa is also the best state for Paul to compete in because it will be the only state where every other candidate will compete in. Santorum, Bachman, Cain, and Gingrich all need to win Iowa to stay in the game, and it is to every advantage for Huntsman to compete. In the case of Perry, as his poll numbers are dropping it is looking more and more like he needs to win or place well in Iowa. In Romney’s case, as his poll numbers remain strong, it makes sense for him to play for Iowa with the hopes of winning than and winning the nomination. This means Paul will be playing in a crowed field–something to his advantage. The winner in Iowa will likely only need about 25% of the vote to win. For Paul, he starts with a base of 10%. With strong organization and interest, that base will turn out in high numbers relative to his actual support, meaning he starts with 15% support in actual likely primary voters. He thus needs to only close a gap of 10%; or convincing 1 in 10 new voters to support him…

Read on

Folks, it’s critical that you start the real grassroots work of campaigning in your area. Please register now with iroots.org and get the training you need. Critical activism training and forums are about to be released! 

P.S. Go ahead and mark off your calendar for campaigning in NH and IA for December!